That said, the “gains are decelerating,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, president at 210 Analytics, in a briefing note issued last week as Beyond Meat released updated guidance predicting slower than expected sales in Q3.
“In the first quarter of 2021, gains versus 2019 were still 156.5% versus the first quarter of 2019,” said Roerink. “Growth dropped to 115.7% in the second quarter [vs 2019] and 74% in the third quarter [vs 2019].”
Higher percentage sold on promotion ‘indicating a marketing effort to further drive trial’
As for price, she said: "Prices for plant-based meat alternatives changed very little. In September, shoppers paid an average price per pound of $8.08, up just 0.2% from September 2020. The percentage of September dollars sold on promotion increased from 30.9% last year to 34.9% in September 2021 — indicating a marketing effort to further drive trial.
“Third quarter and September volume also dropped, at -3.3% and -2.9%, respectively. Much like the share of dollars sold on promotion, the share of volume sold while on sale also increased. In September 2020, 33% of plant-based meat alternative pounds were sold on promotion. In August 2021, this ratio stood at 38%.”
The performance by substitute format was mixed, meanwhile. “The three biggest sellers, dinner sausage, patty and ground substitutes were down year-over-year in September. While a few of the newer, smaller formats grew, they were unable to offset the losses in the bigger formats.”
Conventional meat volumes up 4.1% year to date in 2021 vs same period in 2019
By way of comparison, fresh [conventional] meat sales were up 2.8% in Q3 vs the previous year, but up 24.9% vs 2019. While some of this was driven by higher prices [the average price per pound in the meat department was $4.32 in September 2021, up 11.8% from September 2020], volumes are still up solidly vs 2019, said Roerink.
IRI: US retail sales of refrigerated plant-based meat -3.1% YoY as Beyond Meat predicts slower sales in Q3 - FoodNavigator-USA.com
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