2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds, predictions: Surprising NASCAR at Daytona picks from top model - CBS Sports

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The Daytona Road Course uses elements of the iconic 2.5-mile tri-oval and throws in several major curveballs, including a twisty infield, a bus stop in the back straightaway, and a chicane just before the finish line. On Sunday, the best of the NASCAR Cup Series will test their precision on the unique course for just the second time ever during the regular season at the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET, when 40 drivers will make 70 passes around the track that Chase Elliott dominated in the first race here last year.

Elliott led 34 of the 65 laps on the Daytona Road Course last season, and the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion is the 9-5 favorite in the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Other drivers near the top of this week's 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds board include Martin Truex Jr. (3-1), Denny Hamlin (10-1), Ryan Blaney (14-1) and Kyle Larson (14-1). Before you scour the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 starting grid and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for Sunday, be sure to see the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.

Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions

The model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's an 18-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Harvick isn't renowned as a road-course racer, but he has recorded 22 top-10 finishes in 42 career starts on road courses and won at Watkins Glen in 2006 and Sonoma in 2017.

Harvick won a career-best nine races in 2020 before a disappointing finish to the season. However, Harvick rebounded with a fourth-place finish in the Daytona 500 last week. A strong finish on the Daytona Road Course will set him up to make a run at a second NASCAR championship.

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 field. Hamlin made a valiant attempt at becoming the first driver in NASCAR history to win the Daytona 500 three years in a row, leading a race-high 98 laps before finishing in fifth place.

However, Hamlin hasn't had much luck on road courses, winning just once in 32 career starts. He did finish second on the Daytona Road Course last season, but more recently fell back to sixth after starting third at the 2021 Busch Clash.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win at the 2020 Daytona 500.

2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds

Chase Elliott 9-5
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
A.J. Allmendinger 17-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Joey Logano 18-1
William Byron 20-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Erik Jones 125-1
Justin Haley 125-1
Cole Custer 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 175-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Daniel Suarez 300-1
James Davison 500-1
Anthony Alfredo 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Cody Ware 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Josh Bilicki 2000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1