2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds, predictions: Surprising NASCAR at Daytona picks from advanced model - CBS Sports

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NASCAR fans had an early look at road-course racing in last week's Busch Clash. On Sunday, the right-hand turns will return when 40 of the circuit's best line up for the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253. Daytona International Speedway has been converted back to its 3.61-mile Road Course layout for Sunday's race, with the green flag dropping at 3 p.m. ET. The track was modified slightly from the Busch Clash, as NASCAR added rumble strips on the backstretch to prevent cars from falling into the grass.

Chase Elliott, who won the inaugural race on Daytona's road course en route to the NASCAR Cup Series title, earned the pole on Sunday and is the 9-5 favorite atop the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Martin Truex Jr. is close behind at 3-1 on the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds board. Before you scour the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 starting grid and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for Sunday, be sure to see the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.

Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions

The model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's an 18-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano was less than a half-lap away from his second Daytona 500 victory last week, only to get caught up with Brad Keselowski in a fiery wreck.

Logano knows how to find victory lane on a road course, winning the 2015 race at Watkins Glen as part of a resume that includes 13 top-10 finishes on road courses. Logano, who finished third at the Busch Clash last week on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course, will start from the 11th position. Full of value and extremely fast in his Team Penske Ford, Logano should be part of your 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 bets, according to the model.

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 field. Hamlin made a valiant attempt at becoming the first driver in NASCAR history to win the Daytona 500 three years in a row, leading a race-high 98 laps before finishing in fifth place.

However, Hamlin hasn't had much luck on road courses, winning just once in 32 career starts. He did finish second on the Daytona Road Course last season, but more recently fell back to sixth after starting third at the 2021 Busch Clash.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win at the 2020 Daytona 500.

2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds

Chase Elliott 9-5
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
A.J. Allmendinger 17-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Joey Logano 18-1
William Byron 20-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Erik Jones 125-1
Justin Haley 125-1
Cole Custer 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 175-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Daniel Suarez 300-1
James Davison 500-1
Anthony Alfredo 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Cody Ware 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Josh Bilicki 2000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1