O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Vegas picks, predictions, lineup 2021: Legendary expert fading Kyle Larson - CBS Sports

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There are a number of reasons to believe Chase Elliott is just days away from his first victory of the 2021 NASCAR schedule. The reigning series champion is riding a four-race winning streak on road courses and has five career victories in those venues, the most among active drivers. Elliott enters the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 on Sunday as the defending champion after winning the inaugural event last year, when it was known as the Go Bowling 235.

Elliott, who will start from the pole position, is the 9-5 favorite in the latest 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Other top 2021 NASCAR at Daytona contenders, according to oddsmakers, include Martin Truex Jr. (3-1), Denny Hamlin (10-1), Ryan Blaney (14-1), and Kyle Larson (14-1). The race at Daytona Road Course is set to begin at 3 p.m. ET. You'll want to check out the NASCAR at Daytona Road Course predictions from Micah Roberts, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who pioneered wagering on racing, before locking in any 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 picks.

Roberts is arguably the nation's premier NASCAR betting expert, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed the victory by Hamlin, who wasn't one of the top three favorites, in the Toyota 500 last May.

Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on his predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400. Anyone who has followed his picks is up huge year after year.

Now, Roberts has analyzed the field and odds for Sunday's NASCAR at Daytona Road Course 2021 race. He's only sharing his winner and leaderboard here.

2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 expert picks

One shocker: Roberts is low on Larson, even though he's one of the top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 favorites at 14-1. In fact, Roberts says Larson, who finished 10th in the season-opening Daytona 500, barely cracks the top 15.

"This will be his first run on the Daytona Road Course after missing most of last season," Roberts told SportsLine. "His only top-five finish on a road course came at Watkins Glen during his rookie year in 2014."

Another curveball: Roberts is high on Alex Bowman, who is listed at 28-1 in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. The 27-year-old native of Arizona has yet to win on a road course but has performed well on them in his career. Bowman has posted eight top-20 finishes in 12 road starts, with four top-10s and two top-fives.

"He was seventh in the Busch Clash at Daytona," Roberts told SportsLine of Bowman's most recent start on a road course. "The reason you take him is that he should have similar equipment to Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott."

How to make 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions

Roberts also is high on an epic long shot whose performance on this track less than two weeks ago was "an eye-opener." This driver is being underestimated by oddsmakers, and anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can only see who it is here.

So who wins the 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253? And which massive long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 NASCAR at Daytona Road Course leaderboard, all from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.

2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 odds

Chase Elliott 9-5
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
A.J. Allmendinger 17-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Joey Logano 18-1
William Byron 20-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Kurt Busch 35-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Cole Custer 125-1
Justin Haley 125-1
Erik Jones 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 175-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Daniel Suarez 300-1
Anthony Alfredo 500-1
James Davison 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Josh Bilicki 2000-1
Corey LaJoie 2000-1
Cody Ware 2000-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1